Both the supply side and the cost side are positive, and the market price of graphite electrodes continues to rise.
Today, the price of graphite electrodes in China has been raised. As of November 8, 2021, the average price of mainstream graphite electrodes in China was 21,821 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.00% from the same period last week, and a price increase of 7.57% from the same period last month, compared with the price at the beginning of the year. An increase of 39.82%, an increase of 50.12% over the same period last year. This price increase is still mainly affected by the positive effects of cost and supply.
In terms of cost: the overall price of upstream raw materials for graphite electrodes is still showing an upward trend. In early November, the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke rose by 300-600 yuan/ton, driving the price of low-sulfur calcined coke to rise simultaneously by 300-700 yuan/ton, and the price of needle coke rose by 300-500 yuan/ton; although the price of coal pitch is expected to fall Expected, but the price is still high, the overall cost of the graphite electrode market has increased significantly.
In terms of supply: At present, the overall supply of graphite electrode market is tight, especially ultra-high-power small and medium-sized graphite electrodes. Some graphite electrode companies say that the supply of companies is tight and the supply is under certain pressure. The main reasons are:
1. Mainstream graphite electrode companies mainly produce ultra-high-power large-size graphite electrodes. Small and medium-size graphite electrodes are produced in relatively few markets, and the supply is tight.
2. The power restriction policies of various provinces are still being implemented, and the power restriction in some areas has been slowed down, but the overall start of the graphite electrode market is still restricted. In addition, some areas have received the winter environmental protection production restriction notice, and under the influence of the Winter Olympics, the limit The scope of production has expanded, and the output of graphite electrodes is expected to continue to decrease.
3. In addition, the graphitization process resources are in short supply under the influence of limited power and production, which on the one hand leads to the prolonged production cycle of graphite electrodes. On the other hand, the increase in the cost of graphitization processing has led to an increase in the cost of some non-full-scale graphite electrode companies.
Demand side: At present, the overall demand for graphite electrode market is mainly stable. Under the influence of limited voltage production, the overall shortage of graphite electrode downstream steel mills affects the steel mill’s mentality to purchase graphite electrodes. However, the graphite electrode market is tightly supplied and prices are rising. Stimulus, steel mills have a certain replenishment demand.
Export: It is understood that the current performance of China’s graphite electrode export market has improved compared with the previous period, and some graphite electrode companies have reported an increase in export orders. However, the anti-dumping of the Eurasian Union and the European Union still has certain pressure on China’s graphite electrode exports, and the overall performance of the export market is positive and negative factors are intertwined.
The current market is positive:
1. In the fourth quarter, some export orders were re-signed, and overseas companies needed to stock up in winter.
2. The export sea freight rate has decreased, the tension of export ships and port containers has eased, and the export cycle of graphite electrodes has been reduced.
3. The final anti-dumping ruling of the Eurasian Union will be officially implemented on January 1, 2022. Overseas companies in the Eurasian Union, such as Russia, will prepare as much as possible in advance.
Final ruling:
1. Under the influence of anti-dumping duties, the export price of graphite electrodes has increased, and some small and medium-sized graphite electrode export companies may turn to domestic sales or export to other countries.
2. According to some mainstream graphite electrode companies, although graphite electrode exports have anti-dumping duties, China’s graphite electrode prices still have certain advantages in the export market, and China’s graphite electrode production capacity accounts for 65% of the global graphite electrode production capacity. It plays an important role. While the international demand for graphite electrodes is stable, there is still demand for Chinese graphite electrodes. In summary, it is expected that China’s graphite electrode exports may decrease slightly, and there will be no significant decline.
Market outlook:
Under the influence of limited power and production, the current situation of graphite electrode market supply is tight and the downstream procurement is mainly demanded in the short term. It is not easy to change. Under cost pressures, graphite electrode companies have a certain reluctance to sell. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, it is expected to drive the market price of graphite electrodes to continue to rise steadily, and the increase is expected to be about 1,000 yuan/ton.
Post time: Nov-09-2021