The recent continuous rise in petroleum coke prices, combined with market dynamics and industry analysis, can be mainly attributed to the comprehensive effects of multiple factors such as supply-demand imbalance, cost support, downstream demand growth, and market expectations. The following is a specific analysis: Firstly, the intensification of supply-demand contradictions and the contraction of the supply side have led to a decrease in domestic production. In January 2025, frequent maintenance of coking units in domestic refineries was delayed, resulting in a reduction of about 18000 tons of daily petroleum coke production and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7% in total production. For example, the shutdown of the 3.2 million tons/year plant at Zhejiang Petrochemical has further exacerbated the supply shortage.
Import reduction: Affected by international trade losses and delayed shipments from Indonesia and Brazil, the import volume of petroleum coke is expected to decrease by 3.19% year-on-year in 2025, with particularly tight supply of low sulfur sponge coke. The port inventory is rapidly depleted, and the inventory of medium and low sulfur coke has significantly decreased.
Driven by the continuous expansion of the demand side in the electrolytic aluminum industry, the electrolytic aluminum production reached 43.22 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and the weekly average production increased by 26400 tons in 2025. Pre baked anodes, as a key raw material for electrolytic aluminum, have seen a surge in demand for low sulfur coke, driving prices above 4200 yuan/ton.
Release of negative electrode material production capacity: The rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage industries has led to an increase in negative electrode material production capacity of over 5.96 million tons per year, further driving up demand for low sulfur coke.
2、 Cost and market expectations support fluctuations in crude oil prices, which indirectly affect the production cost of petroleum coke due to geopolitical and supply-demand fundamental fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Despite the high uncertainty of crude oil trends in 2025, the upward shift of the oil price center provides support for petroleum coke prices.
The bullish sentiment in the market has been strengthened, and downstream enterprises have increased their purchasing enthusiasm due to the concentrated release of stocking demand before the Spring Festival, coupled with expectations of tight supply. This has led to a 6% -14% month on month increase in transaction prices, with the highest year-on-year increase reaching 44%.
3、 Price performance and differentiation characteristics: Low sulfur coke leads the rise: High quality low sulfur coke (such as 1 # and 2A models) has a significant price increase due to the largest supply-demand gap. For example, Fushun Petrochemical’s low sulfur coke increased from 3000 yuan/ton in December 2024 to 3500 yuan/ton in January 2025, and some bidding prices even exceeded 4200 yuan/ton.
The price increase of high sulfur coke for general cargo is limited: due to relatively sufficient supply, the price increase of high sulfur coke is generally lower than that of low sulfur coke, and it is expected to maintain a low fluctuation throughout the year. For example, the price range of high sulfur general cargo is 800-1100 yuan/ton.
4、 Future trend outlook: Short term continuation of upward trend. Downstream demand for replenishment after the Spring Festival is still high. It is expected that there will be an upward space of 50-200 yuan/ton for low sulfur coke and medium sulfur index goods in February, and the price peak may approach 2000 yuan/ton (overall market average price).
Medium – to long-term differentiation of low sulfur coke: Supported by the demand for electrolytic aluminum and negative electrode materials, prices may remain high, and some models may exceed 4000 yuan/ton.
High sulfur coke: The shrinking demand in the fuel market coupled with reduced imports is putting pressure on prices and may result in a slight decline.
Potential risks include fluctuations in international crude oil prices, unexpected resumption of refinery production, and downstream industry policy adjustments (such as electrolytic aluminum production capacity restrictions) that may disrupt the current supply-demand balance and require close attention.
Post time: Feb-13-2025